Kevin Kelly essay forecasts AI moving to personal devices

What the research found

Kevin Kelly essay arguing AI will become decentralized as frontier capability moves to personal devices; its quantitative claims (compute halving every 8 months, cost halving every 6-7 months, local frontier-class models within a few years) are speculative forecasts, not verified data.

Claims and how well the evidence supports them

1. Compute needed for a given AI capability has been halving roughly every 8 months 98%
2. Cost per capability halves roughly every 6-7 months when combined with Moore's Law 98%
3. A model as capable as today's leading LLM could run on a consumer device within a few years 98%
4. Training a frontier model from scratch could be affordable for an individual within about a decade 98%

Evidence

• kevinkelly.substack.com https://kevinkelly.substack.com/p/most-improbable-agent-of-you

Actionability rated low.